Forget those grand predictions for Bitcoin’s next moonshot; Matrixport analysts are hitting the brakes, suggesting the crypto king is stuck in neutral. Their latest report throws cold water on the idea that global liquidity is the magic fuel for Bitcoin pumps, arguing that this widely-watched metric might be more ‘shaky ground’ than solid signal.
Despite the arrival of Bitcoin ETFs, which many thought would tie crypto tighter to traditional markets, the data tells a different story. Matrixport points out that Bitcoin’s correlation with the NASDAQ remains stubbornly below COVID-era peaks, hovering well under 60%. This suggests Bitcoin still dances to its own tune, institutions or not.
So, what’s holding Bitcoin back? According to Matrixport, a lack of compelling catalysts. Absent major events like the looming U.S. presidential election that previously ignited market rallies, Bitcoin tends to simply drift. This aligns with technical analysis from Rekt Capital, who notes Bitcoin is currently retracing towards the $82,000 to $85,000 Daily CME Gap area—a level that crucially needs to turn into solid support for any further upward movement.
For those banking on liquidity surges to trigger price jumps, Matrixport delivers another dose of reality: there’s a significant delay. They estimate a roughly 13-week lag between money supply increases and Bitcoin price reactions. This isn’t instant gratification; new money trickles through banks and investments before potentially reaching crypto exchanges. It’s a slow burn, not a quick spark.
Instead of fixating on macro liquidity trends, Matrixport suggests looking closer to home for market movers. “Crypto-native drivers” – think pro-crypto political winds and policy shifts – might be the real game-changers. History backs this up: Bitcoin’s most dramatic price swings correlate with specific, crypto-relevant events, not just broad economic tides. Matrixport even hints at a proprietary “liquidity-based indicator” that has nailed past Bitcoin turning points, though details remain under wraps.