BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is betting big: He predicts Bitcoin could skyrocket to $250,000 by 2025 if the U.S. Federal Reserve pivots to quantitative easing.
Hayes believes a Federal Reserve pivot to quantitative easing (QE), involving bond purchases and injecting money into the economy, could fuel Bitcoin’s 2025 rally. QE aims to lower interest rates and boost spending during financial challenges.
In his April 1 Substack post, Hayes, who is also the chief investment officer of Maelstrom, stated that if his analysis is correct, Bitcoin’s local low was $76,500 last month, and the price will ascend to $250,000 by year-end.
The Fed reduced the Treasury runoff cap from $25 billion to $5 billion per month, starting April 1, while maintaining mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff at $35 billion.
According to Reuters, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed might allow the MBS to roll off without replacement, potentially reinvesting excess principal payments into Treasurys.
Hayes added, “Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced.”
Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, estimates that the growing money supply could push Bitcoin’s price above $132,000 before the end of 2025.
Hayes has stated he has been “buying Bitcoin and shitcoins at all levels between $90,000 to $76,500,” indicating his confidence in the crypto market for the remainder of 2025; he also added that the pace of capital deployment will fluctuate according to the accuracy of his predictions.
Hayes added, “I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars… That allows Xi Jinping to instruct the PBOC to stop tightening monetary conditions onshore to defend the dollar-yuan exchange rate, which increases the net quantity of yuan.”
Despite Hayes’s optimistic outlook, Polymarket data reveals that only 9% of traders are betting on Bitcoin reaching $250,000, while 60% anticipate it hitting $110,000 in 2025.