Recession bells ringing? One analyst says the US faces a 40% chance of a recession in 2025, and cryptocurrencies could feel the chill. Market analyst Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, points to macroeconomic uncertainty and a potential trade war as the culprits.
Puckrin stated that while a recession is not guaranteed, the present macroeconomic instability creates a risky environment for assets like cryptocurrencies. He noted, “Trump and his advisors have said they have not completely dismissed the recession, which means it is definitely possible, but right now, I would not say it is probable, but the odds have climbed a lot.” Puckrin added that while President Trump isn’t intentionally aiming for a recession, actions like federal job cuts and spending reductions to balance the budget could inadvertently trigger one.
The analyst suggests macroeconomic uncertainty is driving the US Dollar Index (DXY) down. Investors are reportedly shifting capital towards European markets, seeking refuge from the US economic climate. The DXY experienced a sharp decline in March 2025.
Adding fuel to the fire, President Trump’s tariffs have already rattled crypto markets. Bitcoin’s price corrected by 24% from its January high of over $109,000, and altcoins experienced steeper declines. Market sentiment has reportedly swung from post-election euphoria to “extreme fear,” a stark contrast to the bullish mood after Trump’s reelection in November 2025.
Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, anticipates continued tariff pressures on crypto markets until at least April 2025. However, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, suggests Bitcoin may have bottomed out in March 2025. This potential turnaround is attributed to President Trump softening his stance on trade tariffs.