Ethereum is currently testing critical support levels after falling out of its rising channel, with recent trading around $1,880. The cryptocurrency is now at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which serves as a pivotal test for its recovery from June’s low.
Ethereum’s network activity has reached record levels, processing approximately 2.5 million transactions per day. Despite this, on-chain valuation data suggests that the market may not have established a durable bottom. Currently, Ethereum remains below its realized price, with only two of five historical bottom signals having triggered.
The recent price movement has drawn attention to the resistance zone near $2,000, where a pullback was anticipated as Ethereum approached this psychological level. This zone aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and the falling 100-day simple moving average, indicating multiple obstacles.
The breach of the lower boundary of the rising channel has weakened the sequence of higher lows established since late June. As a result, the focus has now shifted to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, which is acting as immediate support. A successful retest of this level could indicate that the recovery remains intact and may allow Ethereum to attempt a move back toward $2,000.
However, should Ethereum fail to hold this support, attention will turn to the $1,800 level, which previously acted as resistance before the recent price increase. A dip below $1,800 would further weaken the recovery and bring the 50-day simple moving average near $1,736 into focus.
The daily relative strength index is currently near 57, showing some momentum improvement from the lows seen in June, but it is not robust enough to counteract a confirmed price breakdown. Ethereum’s current technical setup suggests it is at a critical juncture, with outcomes hinging on its ability to maintain support around the Fibonacci retracement levels.
