Polymarket’s World Cup winner market attracted over 194,000 unique addresses, but approximately two-thirds finished with losses.
The World Cup concluded with Spain defeating Argentina 1-0 in the July 19 final. Data shows the payouts heavily concentrated among a few large winners, while most participants recorded minimal gains or losses.
Nearly 130,000 addresses finished the market in the red, representing about 66.7% of all participants. Most losses were small, as 114,126 addresses each lost under $100, with an average loss of less than $10.
Conversely, 43 addresses lost more than $100,000, totaling a combined loss of $15 million. On the winning side, 54 addresses cleared over $100,000, collectively banking $22.3 million.
Among the notable losses, a trader known as gud.hl lost $1.2 million after betting everything on Argentina to win the 2026 World Cup. Gud.hl purchased roughly 12 million shares of Argentina at an average price of 10 cents each, which would have resulted in an $11.2 million payout had Argentina won.
Spain’s victory eliminated Argentina in extra time on July 19, erasing gud.hl’s position completely. Funding for gud.hl’s wager traced back to a separate Solana wallet that made $1.9 million trading $TRUMP tokens at launch, according to Bubblemaps.
This episode fits a pattern where traders cash out memecoin windfalls to place bets in prediction markets. The analyst noted that the large losses and gains within the market exemplify the volatility associated with such trading.
